The Director of Fundación Argentina 1.5, Pilar Bueno, participated in the international session “What to watch at COP31: Key negotiation items that will shape the next phase of the Paris Agreement”, organized by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as part of its COP31 Virtual Pavilion.
Held online on 3 November, the session brought together experts to discuss the key negotiation issues that will shape the next United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31), to be held in Antalya, Türkiye.
Across two rounds of discussion, Pilar Bueno shared perspectives on the challenges facing the adaptation agenda, particularly regarding the next steps towards operationalizing the Belém Adaptation Indicators (BAIs) and the opportunities offered by the second Global Stocktake to assess global progress in this area.
Regarding the negotiations on the BAIs, she noted that discussions are approaching Antalya from a challenging starting point, marked by the divergences highlighted during the Bonn session, both in terms of the ambition of adaptation action and the financing needed to make it possible.
In this context, she emphasized that one of the main challenges at COP31 will be to agree on the composition and modalities of the Technical Task Force (TTF), with clearly defined objectives, timelines and responsibilities. She also stressed the need for a flexible and phased approach, considering that, according to the UNFCCC Secretariat's report, only 8 of the 59 indicators currently have methodologies that allow for immediate implementation, while another 29 have partial methodologies.
She also highlighted the importance of incorporating testing exercises taking place across different regions to assess the alignment between national and local processes and instruments and the global framework, taking different starting points into account. These territorial experiences should inform the TTF's work and support their replication.
Another central point of her intervention was adaptation finance. The widening adaptation finance gap and the disconnect between financial commitments and discussions on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) represent major obstacles to both testing the indicators and implementing them. Looking ahead to Antalya, she stressed the need to make progress towards delivering on the goal of tripling adaptation finance and to establish a dedicated space for this discussion.
The second round focused on the role of the second Global Stocktake (GST2) in assessing global progress on adaptation, compared with the first exercise (GST1).
Pilar noted that the adoption of the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience (UAE-FGCR) and the Belém Adaptation Indicators represents an opportunity to broaden and strengthen this assessment. Potential approaches include using existing reporting instruments submitted by Parties to assess progress against the GGA targets and components, as well as adopting a tiered approach to the BAIs.
However, she warned that the timing of transparency reporting instruments presents a challenge for the process. The availability of the second and third Biennial Transparency Reports (BTR2 and BTR3) will be crucial to ensuring that sufficient information is available within the GST2 timeline.
Raising the political profile of adaptation across all negotiation spaces is essential to ensuring that the voices of those most affected by climate change are represented and that multilateral commitments translate into concrete action.
