The development of a new El Niño event for the 2026-2027 period, according to available forecasts, could reach considerable intensity. Unlike previous cycles, this event follows three consecutive years (2023-2025) in which ocean temperatures broke records, amplifying the risk of severe impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean.
According to estimates from the International Research Center for the El Niño Phenomenon (CIIFEN), there is a near 20% probability that this episode will be classified as "very strong," with surface temperature anomalies that could be between 2°C and 3°C above average by the end of 2026. Spokespeople for the World Meteorological Organization already indicate that models point to an event of considerable magnitude.
Same phenomenon, opposite impacts
El Niño does not affect the entire region equally. In northern South America, the Amazon, and the Central American Dry Corridor, the temperature increase accelerates the loss of moisture from the soil and vegetation, raising the risk of forest fires. Meanwhile, along the southern Pacific coast and in the Southern Cone, the phenomenon translates into intense rainfall, flash floods, and strain on urban infrastructure that, in many cases, was not designed for such extremes.
Climate change did not create El Niño, but it acts as a multiplier of its effects: it turns natural variability into humanitarian and environmental crises on a scale we did not see before.
From emergency to adaptation
The challenge is no longer just about anticipating droughts or floods, but about putting long-term planning at the center of public debate: the actual implementation of prevention budgets, land-use planning, the diversification of energy sources, and the strengthening of social protection systems capable of responding before the most vulnerable communities lose their livelihoods.
