The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) today released "Limiting Overshoot," a new report confirming that global warming will exceed the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement, likely within the next few years. Even in the most optimistic scenario, the peak temperature would reach 1.8°C.
The report is unequivocal: exceeding 1.5°C should not be interpreted as safe or acceptable. Among the identified risks are:
Glaciers could lose more than a quarter of their mass by 2100, with direct implications for water availability.
Without effective adaptation, global food production could decline by up to 14% by 2050.
The probability of crossing points of no return increases: destabilization of the ice sheets of West Antarctica and Greenland, degradation of the Amazon and alteration of the ocean circulation of the Atlantic.
Faced with this scenario, the report proposes a path: "overshoot, peak and decline", structured in three interconnected phases:
1️) Immediate response: deep and sustained cuts in greenhouse gases and urgent adaptation to protect the most vulnerable.
2️) Containment: sustained decarbonization to reach net zero, together with the development of social resilience.
3️) Long-term resilience: sustained negative net CO₂ emissions to reverse warming.
Equity, inclusive governance, financing, and political will are the enabling conditions that the report identifies as central to navigating this path, with the countries of greatest historical responsibility leading the action.
An urgent call for collective climate action, ahead of COP31.
